Measuring Public Opinion on Early Trump Administration Actions in 2025 Across Battleground States
How voters across swing states feel about early Trump administration actions.
Since President Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, his administration has put into motion a dizzying wave of divisive policies. While these issues have sparked fierce debate between political parties in Washington, we here at Grow Progress wanted to know how they were landing with voters in politically pivotal states.
To answer this, a multi-state Audience Understanding Survey was conducted in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 788 Americans across these swing states were asked to rate their approval or disapproval of the administration’s actions overall, as well as on three high-profile issues: the direction of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Medicaid restrictions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” and the decision not to release the Jeffrey Epstein case files.
Here’s what we discovered.
Executive Summary
Overall, 52% of respondents in these swing states disapprove of the Trump administration’s actions, while 47% approve.
- Strongly Disapprove: 37% of respondents
- Somewhat Disapprove: 15% of respondents
- Somewhat Approve: 20% of respondents
- Strongly Approve: 27% of respondents
We then asked respondents about the following issues that have captured public attention, and asked how much they approved or disapproved:
ICE & Immigration Enforcement: While approval or disapproval of ICE closely follows whether they approve or disapprove of the Trump Administration, very few mentioned ICE or immigration as a major reason for their approval or disapproval of the president’s actions.
Medicaid Restrictions: Healthcare access proved to be a deeply personal and emotive topic. Even among those with modest approval of the Trump administration’s actions, worries about healthcare access outweighed worries about preventing fraud in the system.
Epstein Files Decision: The decision not to release the Epstein files sparked a mix of indifference, calls for government transparency and accountability, and suspicion, even among Trump supporters.
Key Findings on ICE, Medicaid, and the Epstein Files
We looked particularly at the groups that were most likely to be persuadable, i.e. the “somewhat approve” or “somewhat disapprove” of the Trump administration segments, and analyzed both their approval and their open-ended responses when asked why they felt the way they do about ICE, Medicaid being cut, and the Epstein files not being released.
ICE & Immigration
We asked all respondents, “United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has been in the news a lot lately. How much do you approve or disapprove of ICE?”
Somewhat Approve of Trump Administration’s Actions
Amongst this segment, we saw a high approval for ICE at 77%. Among the “Somewhat Approve” segment, no one mentioned disapproving of what Trump is doing with ICE.
Somewhat Disapprove of Trump Administration’s Actions
In the “Somewhat Disapprove” segment, only five respondents out of 122 mentioned disagreeing with his immigration policies unprompted, but ICE approval is much lower when asked about directly, at 40%.
One respondent in the “Somewhat Disapprove” segment said, “I basically agree with Trump’s policy on immigration law, but I think he goes a little out of line to execute his policy.” Another said, “Innocent citizens should not be deported to land they never knew or once lived in, or to concentration camps.”
Medicaid
We then asked, “President Trump and Republicans in Congress passed and signed the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act,’ which includes Medicaid restrictions that the Congressional Budget Office estimates will lead to 11.8 million Americans losing health coverage under Medicaid over the next decade. Do you approve or disapprove of the medicaid restrictions in the legislation?”
Somewhat Approve of Trump Administration’s Actions
Among the “Somewhat Approve” segment, approval of cuts to Medicaid is more evenly split, with 51% approving and 49% disapproving. Only three respondents mentioned cuts to Medicaid unprompted in their open-ended responses to their overall approval or disapproval of the Trump administration’s actions taken so far in 2025.
When explicitly asked about the cuts to Medicaid, 19% of these respondents mentioned concerns about reduced access for vulnerable groups. Only 6% brought up concerns about fraud or abuse in the Medicaid system.
One person said, “It’s extremely hard without Medicaid, and children will suffer.”
Somewhat Disapprove of Trump Administration’s Actions
In the “Somewhat Disapprove” segment, five respondents mentioned cuts to Medicaid unprompted, but a much higher percentage (79%) disapproved of the cuts when asked. In their open-ended responses, 23% cited reduced access as their primary reason for disapproval.
One respondent in this segment said, “Millions of low-income Americans will lose healthcare coverage, many of whom can’t change their situation, like children, the elderly, and disabled individuals.”
Epstein Files
Lastly, we asked, “President Trump and his administration previously said they would release files related to the late Jeffrey Epstein. Now he is saying the administration will not release the files and that people should move on. How much do you approve or disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of the Epstein files?”
Somewhat Approve of Trump Administration’s Actions
No one in either of the segments mentioned the Epstein files unprompted, but both segments had higher percentages of people who disapproved of the handling of the Epstein files when asked about it directly.
In the “Somewhat Approve” segment, 56% disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of the files.
- 18% – The issue is not important and should be left in the past
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- “It’s just there’s more important things that are on the table right now.”
- 14% – The files should be released to expose the truth and those involved
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- “The general public deserves to know who they can trust or not.”
- 8% – The handling of the files appears shady and suggests a cover-up
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- “I believe Trump’s refusal to release the documents shows that he could be hiding something.”
Somewhat Disapprove of Trump Administration’s Actions
In the “Somewhat Disapprove” segment, 76% said they disapprove of the way they’ve handled the files.
- 16% – The issue is not important and should be left in the past
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- “The man is deceased. Let it just be, why bring out more problems & issues?”
- 11% – The files should be released to expose the truth and those involved
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- “To find out who was involved with him and if they are in a place of importance to the American people.”
- 9% – The handling of the files appears shady and suggests a cover-up
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- “If they said they were going to put it out at first, that’s what they should have done. Now that they say they won’t, it just raises suspicion.”
Approval & Disapproval Segments
Now we’ll take a closer look at all four segments and dive deeper into demographic data as well as their own words on why they responded the way they did to the main question about the Trump administration.
Strongly Approve
Demographic Highlights:
- 89% voted Republican in the last Presidential election
- 75% are registered Republicans
- 50% attend church weekly
- 62% are Men
After we asked whether they approve or disapprove of the Trump administration’s actions, we asked them why they felt that way. Here are samples of this segment’s open-ended responses:
“I approve of Trump making people stand on your own two feet instead of waiting on free money from the government.”
“During the last 3 to 4 months, Donald Trump has succeeded more than any other President during the existence of the United States.”
“Because so far Trump’s actions have significantly reduced our debt as a result of the tariffs. Also he has pardoned a number of people that were wrongly imprisoned or punished unfairly.”
Somewhat Approve
Demographic Highlights:
- 61% voted Republican in the last Presidential election
- 40% are registered Republicans
- 78% are White
- 42% are between the ages of 35-54
Here are samples of this segment’s open-ended responses as to why they slightly approve of the Trump administration’s actions:
“I mostly agree with his policies but don’t always approve of the way he carries them out.”
“Because while I see some positive steps taken by President Trump and his administration, there are also areas where I believe improvements are still needed.”
“He actually did some of the things he said he was going to do.”
Somewhat Disapprove
Demographic Highlights:
- 58% are registered Independents
- 36% did not vote in the last Presidential election
- 39% are between the ages of 18-34
Here’s what some in this segment had to say when asked about their answer choice:
“I feel like his tariffs are too high, although I do agree that we should be buying things from our own country. I don’t want to go to war.”
“I just think he’s doing some harsh things. I think he’s being impulsive and not really making great decisions.”
“I don’t believe that he is doing anything for our economy. He is concentrated on the country’s debt and cutting helpful programs.”
Strongly Disapprove
Demographic Highlights:
- 75% voted Democrat in the last Presidential election
- 54% are registered Democrats
- 43% do not attend church weekly
Here are open-ended responses to why this segment strongly disapproves of the Trump administration’s actions taken in 2025:
“I disapprove of just about everything he is doing. He lies about everything, he loves to call people who question his actions derogatory words, and he is trying to ruin the economy and our allies with outrageous tariffs.”
“The entire Trump administration is inept, and the majority of persons in critical governmental positions are wholly not qualified to be in them. The new age Republican party is bias; they are all against diversity and there are no African Americans nor Hispanics in any important positions in this administration.”
“Trump did everything that he said he wouldn’t do: taking away our health insurance, made food cost more, and everything else is up. I can’t afford things today because of Trump.”
Conclusion
Our research highlights that Trump administration policies in 2025 have created some opportunities for advocates and strategists to craft messaging strategies to persuade voters in these swing states. While immigration may not be the current persuasion battleground, healthcare access and transparency appear to be vulnerabilities for this administration with this group of potential voters.
Ready to find the messaging that resonates with your audiences? Learn more about Grow Progress’ Audience Understanding Surveys and Rapid Message Tests, and be sure to sign up for our newsletter and never miss a beat.
