Celebrity Political Endorsements: Does It Matter Who Approves This Message?
As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump sprint toward Election Day, an increasing number of celebrities are stepping up to stand behind their choice for president. Campaigns invest significant time and energy into lining up these endorsements. The endorsements themselves are carefully scripted and choreographed by both the campaigns and the celebrities’ staff.
But do celebrity endorsements actually matter? Do they persuade undecided voters? Are they more effective at boosting or reducing support for candidates? Can celebrity endorsements do more harm than good?
The Test
We launched a Rapid Message Test to an audience of 4,023 adults nationwide and six hours later, we had answers. Grow Progress’ Rapid Message Tests use randomized controlled trials (RCTs), the scientific gold standard for research. First, we randomly assigned each respondent to one of 10 groups. Then each group viewed one video (one of nine endorsements or a placebo message) and answered the same three questions.
We tested endorsements from six celebrities supporting Vice President Harris (Eminem, Beyonce, Bruce Springsteen, John Legend, Maggie Rogers, Leonardo DiCaprio) and three supporting former President Trump (Hulk Hogan, Jason Aldean, Dr. Phil). Read on to learn what we found.
The Results
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kamala Harris?
Only one of the celebrities we tested in Harris’ corner had a significant impact on how favorable people feel toward her – and that impact was in the wrong direction. Clips of Eminem, Bruce Springsteen, John Legend, Maggie Rogers, Leonardo DiCaprio endorsing Harris had no measurable effect.
Beyonce’s endorsement, on the other hand, created backlash leading to people feeling less favorably about Harris. The effect was particularly pronounced among younger White people, independents, people in suburban and rural areas, and 2020 Trump voters.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?
Six of the endorsements made people feel less favorable toward Trump, including two of the celebrities who were supposed to bolster his case for the presidency. Four of these results are statistically significant; two are directional, meaning it’s more likely than not that they reduce favorability for Trump but we can’t say for sure.
Several of Harris’ celebrity endorsers dampen favorable feelings toward her opponent. Respondents who saw the Bruce Springsteen, John Legend, Eminem, and Leonardo DiCaprio endorsements are less likely than other respondents to feel favorable toward the former president. The effect of endorsements from Springsteen, Legend, and Eminem is pronounced among men, a key persuasion audience for Harris, and Springsteen’s endorsement is most likely to persuade independents and conservatives away from Trump.
Dr. Phil’s endorsement of Trump clearly does more harm than good among most audiences. Respondents who viewed a clip of Dr. Phil are seven points less likely to have favorable feelings toward Trump. It’s likely that Jason Aldean’s endorsement also moved people in the wrong direction.
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
On the surface, none of the celebrity endorsements we tested affected how people plan to vote. All nine of the endorsements fall into the gray area, meaning they had no measurable effect on vote choice. That’s not surprising given the tightness of the race. But there is important movement among key subgroups.
Among people who voted for Trump in 2020, those who saw the Springsteen endorsement are six points more likely to vote for Harris than those who did not. People who identify as moderates and saw the Springsteen video are 10 points more likely to vote for Harris than moderates who did not see his endorsement. The largest effect was among men – viewing the Springsteen endorsement moves men toward a Harris vote by 11 points.
Eminem’s endorsement moves people who identify as liberal toward a Harris vote by nine points.
The Takeaway
This particular set of endorsements did more to move favorability away from Trump than toward Harris, but when an election is as close as this one, any movement matters. Harris’ celebrity endorsements seem carefully chosen to persuade key audiences – men and moderates.
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