Brewing Tensions: Consumer Sentiment Amidst U.S.- Canada Trade Friction

Tapping into opinions on Canadian products

The relationship between Canada and the United States is in a frothy state as talks of tariffs and trade wars bubble up negative feelings in one of our closest allies. From booing the American anthem in a US-Canada hockey match to pulling American products off their store shelves, Canadians have reacted strongly to the tariffs and President Trump’s comments about becoming America’s 51st state. 

Meanwhile, feelings about a trade war with our North American allies are falling flat at home. A February poll found that only 28% of adult Americans support tariffs against Canada, while 43% oppose them. Another poll found that most Americans agree that tariffs will hurt us as consumers. Even noted Trump supporter Joe Rogan spoke out against the talks of making Canada another U.S. state. 

Amidst all this brewing uncertainty, we at Grow Progress wanted to know how American consumers feel about Canadian products and whether there is support or backlash for pro-Canadian advertisements during these hazy times.

How We Tested

We tested three different videos:

• “I am Canadian” This 2000 ad became a national sensation in Canada when it was released to promote Molson Canadian beer, now known as Molson Coors. 
• “Canada Ad 2025” An anonymous collective of Canadian creatives and advertising professionals recently updated the ‘I am Canada’ ad, not to sell beer but to stir national pride. It specifically calls out President Trump and American Republicans. 
• “The Shared Spirit” A Budweiser commercial that talks about the shared American spirit to evoke feelings of pride.

The videos were tested using the Grow Progress Rapid Message Test tool, which uses randomized controlled trials (RCTs)—the premier standard in message testing modeled on medical trials. 

First, an audience of over 3,000 US adults was recruited. They were randomly split into one of four groups. Each group viewed one video (one of the three mentioned above or a placebo message) and answered the same three questions. In less than 24 hours we had the following results.

The Toplines

Topline results of how the videos affected consumer opinions on Canadian products and Molson Coors

When we look at the overall results, we see that the “I am Canadian” ad from Molson Coors had a persuasive effect on people’s opinions of Canadian products while also showing some directional persuasion for Molson Coors. 

The updated version of that video, “Canada Ad 2025″, which wasn’t focused on selling any product and wasn’t affiliated with any brand, also saw some directionally persuasive movement for the company and for buying Canadian products.

Lastly, the “Shared Spirit” Budweiser ad had no measurable effects and didn’t cause backlash. This means consumers who saw the Shared Spirit ad weren’t infused with patriotic pride and civic duty to purchase American products over Canadian products, nor were they more or less favorable toward Canadian products. 

Political Subgroups

We then used Grow Progress’ results visualization to drill down into the political subgroups and analyze how political ideology influenced the outcomes.

DemocratsAmong Democrats, who already had predictably higher baselines than the other political groups based on party sentiment, the more recent “Canada Ad 2025” made an 8-point impact on their likelihood of purchasing Canadian products. This is fairly substantial, given that the baseline for this group was already at 68% before seeing the video.

Neither the “I am Canadian” nor the “Shared Spirit” videos had any measurable effects among Democrats in the other categories.

Independents

Independents had a lower baseline level of support across all questions, including only 26% favorability for Molson Coors, but the “Canada Ad 2025” video (that didn’t even mention Molson Coors or Canadian products) directionally persuaded them on that question.

The “I am Canadian” video, which did mention Molson Coors, directionally persuaded Independents to feel more favorable toward the company and have a more favorable opinion of Canadian products.

Republicans

Predictably, the “Canada Ad 2025” video, which explicitly calls out Trump and American Republicans, caused directional backlash among Republicans regarding whether or not they would purchase Canadian products. Somewhat surprising, however, is that it didn’t cause statistically significant backlash across all three questions. It’s fair to assume that had it perhaps been a branded video, that brand may have also seen their favorability lowered.

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, given that the “I am Canadian” video also gently bites its thumb at America, albeit without naming names, it successfully threads the needle by having persuasive effects on Republicans regarding their favorability and likelihood of purchasing Canadian products. It did not, however, impact their perception of the Molson Coors brand itself.

Similarly, Budweiser’s “Shared Spirit” video also had persuasive effects on Republicans regarding their favorability and likelihood of purchasing Canadian products. This means that despite being shown a “pro-American” video from an American company, Republicans didn’t seem to feel any ill will towards Canadian products until they watched a video that called out their leaders.

Pro-Tariff versus Anti-Tariff

We also asked respondents whether they were against, for, or had no opinion on Canadian tariffs. We used Results Visualization filtering for these responses and learned more.

How likely are you to purchase products that are made in Canada?

The “Canada Ad 2025” had a statistically significant persuasive effect on people against Canadian tariffs, raising their likelihood to purchase Canadian-made products by 11%. The “I am Canadian” video also increased this likelihood by 5%. 

People who are for Canadian tariffs were 9% less likely to purchase Canadian products after seeing “Canada Ad 2025” and 5% less likely after seeing “I am Canadian.” Seeing the Budweiser “Shared Spirit” video also decreased their likelihood by 3%.

Those who didn’t have an opinion were also less likely to purchase Canadian products after seeing “Canada Ad 2025,” while the other videos had less measurable effects.

Conclusion

The reactions to the Canadian ads show some interesting trends during these tense times. The original “I am Canadian“ ad did a great job of boosting positive views on Canadian products and Molson Coors. Meanwhile, the “Canada Ad 2025 managed to create some pro-Canadian feelings, especially among Democrats and Independents, even though it had a political angle. On the flip side, the Budweiser “Shared Spirit” ad didn’t seem to change anyone’s opinions. 

Overall, it’s clear that people’s political views play a big role in how they see Canadian products. There is still a solid base of support, but the messaging resonates differently depending on the audience, highlighting the importance of knowing who your audience is and what resonates with them.

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